The goal of betting is to make more accurate predictions than bettors can about what might happen in an event, and while the concept is the same for all sports, football will require a very unique approach.

Before delving into the complexities of football betting predictions, it is important to recognize the role that randomness and luck play in predicting outcomes. The power of luck should never be forgotten. Football is the sport where the outcome of games, tournaments, and even entire home seasons are thought to be most subject to randomness. Because of its low-scoring nature, a win, a draw or a loss is only a goal away for a team.

While it is difficult to rely on luck when predicting football bets, you can still take it into account when evaluating results. Our natural reaction is to attribute correct predictions to skill and incorrect predictions to bad luck, but that’s not the case. It’s not that skill doesn’t count, it’s just that you’ll need a large sample of results to prove it. When betting, it is dangerous to assume that short-term success comes from skill.

Focus on what you want to predict

One of the common mistakes people make is that when making football predictions, they try to predict everything that could happen. The outcome of the game, whether the teams will score, the number of corner kicks and the number of licenses are just a few examples of popular betting markets. Focusing on one aspect of the game rather than trying to predict everything that could happen in a football game will help you get a better result.

In fact, the more granular you choose to bet, the better the results will be. The first step should be your sport, then the league, then the market. The more bettors you have competing in your chosen market, the more difficult it will be. This is because the more bets you place, the more information the bookmaker will have to correct their odds. There are benefits to choosing an emerging market, but you will need more information to help you predict.

The past is as important as the future

When betting at football, you are trying to predict the outcome of future events, and the past provides your best indicator. While many bettors consider themselves to be experts in their own right, the benefits of using data when trying to correctly predict football are unparalleled.

Most bettors will use morale, head-to-head results and team handicap records. Other basic types of data mean we can calculate averages of output values for other betting markets, but there is more detailed information available on the internet that allows you to use that approach further.

Compare your predictions with the odds

To consistently make a profit from football betting, your predictions don’t need to be completely correct. It just needs to be more correct than the bettors and the rest of the market. You also need to be right more often than you are wrong.

Once you have established your football predictions, they need to be converted into odds and compared to the odds offered by the bookmakers. When the odds of your predicted event are higher than the bookmaker’s, it is called an “edge” and you can then invest your capital based on the edge.

Set goals and make adjustments

The difficulty of football predictions should not be underestimated. You can take a step-by-step approach to understanding your predictions and increasing your accuracy, but making consistent profits is another matter. Before you start, you need to have a clear understanding of what you want to try to achieve, what you want to predict and how you plan to do it.

When predicting football bets, data is a necessary tool to help you build a betting model that can be used to test predictions and see if you can make a profit. Whether you make a profit or not with your model, it is important to keep adjusting, maintaining and testing it to ensure long term success.